2022 Assembly poll results: Manipur votes for peace and development
The BJP win in Manipur comes as no surprise. N Biren Singh, the sitting Chief Minister of Manipur, defeated his closest rival from the Congress by a margin of 18,271 votes in the Heingang seat. Biren Singh is set to lead the state as Chief Minister for a second term, as there is no serious contender for the coveted post. Interestingly, former police officer and DGP, Manipur, Y Joykumar Singh of the NPP who was Deputy Chief Minister in the last government has lost his Uripok seat to the BJP.
This time the national president of the National Peoples’ Party (NPP), Conrad Sangma, who is also the Chief Minister of Meghalaya, while campaigning in Manipur had made a very provocative statement. He said that the NPP would not be the kingmaker this time but be the king. Hence the NPP went alone this time and put up 43 candidates. Conrad must have bitten off more than he can chew this time as far as Manipur is concerned. And with Biren Singh categorically stating that BJP is not teaming up with the NPP, it’s now sure that the NPP will have to sit in the Opposition.
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Under normal circumstances, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chairperson of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), would have been seen in Imphal tying up a coalition. He is usually seen stitching up coalition governments in the northeastern states. He did it in Meghalaya in 2018 when the BJP only won two of 60 seats and became a coalition partner of the NPP which won 23 of the 60 seats and formed a government with regional party allies. On the swearing in day, the saffron flag flew across the city of Shillong making it appear that the government is BJP-led. That’s the show of strength that the BJP and Himanta believe in.
But Biren Singh is not one to be floored by the flamboyant Himanta. The Manipur BJP has walked out of the NEDA. And not without reason. When some BJP rebels wanted to dislodge Biren Singh from the CM’s post they went and camped in Assam and Himanta indulged them. This happened on 20 June 2021 and the Biren Singh ministry then was on a sticky wicket when 9 MLAs supporting the government resigned. The nine included 4 NPP, 1 TMC, 3 BJP and 1 Independent.
The 4 NPP ministers led by Deputy Chief Minister Y Joykumar Singh said that they were forced to walk out of the coalition as they were not treated with respect as partners. The NPP president of Manipur, Thangminlein Kipgen, complained that Biren Singh refused to have a common minimum programme and that the allocation of portfolios was not as per the understanding at the start of the coalition. Above all, the BJP did not consult the coalition partners to decide on a consensus candidate for the 2017 Rajya Sabha election.
Conrad Sangma and Himanta Biswa Sarma flew to Imphal to sort out the crisis. Although there was a temporary truce, it did not go down well with Biren Singh. Perhaps this is why he is categorical in saying that the BJP would have no truck with the NPP this time around. With the larger than life image that Y Joykumar Singh carries as a former police chief and with Biren Singh’s humble beginnings, it is natural to expect a clash of political egos. In fact, Biren Singh is reported to have said of Conrad Sangma: “He is only a boy.” This is a loaded statement which suggests that Sangma is a political lightweight not to be taken seriously.
Coalitions are difficult propositions demanding a modicum of respect for the partners which is what Conrad Sangma does very well in Meghalaya. He is accommodating to the point of coalition ministers/MLAs with coal mines to illegally mine the coal and transport it, despite the NGT ban on rat hole mining.
The Naga Peoples’ Front (NPF) with 4 MLAs supported the BJP coalition in 2017 and remained intact. For the BJP this was a strategic alliance. The presence of the NPF as part of the coalition is what gave Manipur much-needed stability. In the past five years of the BJP-led coalition government, there were no road blockades and militant activities were on a downswing.
Manipur has all the ingredients to make it a highly volatile state and the five-year peaceful tenure gave Biren Singh leverage to claim that his government had concentrated on the development and not just on fighting militancy, although there are still about three dozen militant outfits in Manipur — some of them on a suspension of operations (SOO) agreement with the government. The Kuki Liberation Organisation (KLO) is one such group which has signed an SOO with the government.
Just 48 hours before the second phase of the polls, Jairam Ramesh, the Congress stalwart who was overseeing elections in Manipur, tweeted that the state government and the Union home ministry had flagrantly violated the model code of conduct by releasing Rs 16.63 crore to banned militant groups, thereby making a mockery of elections. The banned outfits were alleged to have told people in the four districts of Tengnoupal, Chandel, Churachandpur and Kangkokpi with 11 constituencies to vote for BJP candidates. This is nothing short of influencing the elections, but the ECI refused to take cognisance of this calling it a normal payment.
Biren Singh and the Union home ministry denied there was any wrongdoing and said the money was due to the outfits that had signed an SOO with the government and there was no wrongdoing as alleged.
It is in this surcharged environment that the polls in Manipur were fought. There were complaints galore about non-BJP candidates, particularly those from the NPP, being attacked and subjected to violence. Those in the Opposition would not like to concede that the BJP was successful to some extent because of the good governance it provided. For the first time after many years there were attempts by Biren Singh to bridge the hill-valley divide.
Former Congress chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh played the ethnic card very well and created districts in 2016 which created fissures among the tribes. Manipur is also fraught in the manner in which constituencies are divided. The valley region with only 8 per cent of land area is home to 60 per cent of the population, while the hills with 92 per cent of land area have only 40 per cent of the population. While the tribes can buy land in the valley, the Meiteis who are considered non-tribes merely because they are Vaishnavite Hindus and Muslims cannot buy land in the hills on the plea of protection of the tribes.
Biren Singh is also credited with bringing in the Inner Line Permit in 2019 — a demand that the people of Manipur, especially the Meiteis, have been very keen about since there is a huge influx not just from the rest of India but also infiltration from the Myanmar border. Besides ensuring relative peace the Biren Singh government has also been able to secure from the Centre a Rs 850 crore International Institute for Sports and a Khelo India Centre each in the 16 districts, besides an Olympic Park on 10 acres of land for training facilities for the youth of Manipur who wish to excel in sporting activities.
Biren Singh is not loud or brash. A former journalist, he is a man of few words. He is just himself. In the early days of his chief ministership, Biren Singh tried to clamp down on free speech and got journalists that posted their views on social media arrested on sedition. He had become quite unpopular at the time, but he too has learnt that such reactions make people bristle with resentment. Hence, he has now learnt to be more tolerant of criticism directed at him and his government.
Biren Singh has his job cut out for the next five years, and this time with less pressure and pulls from allies.
The writer is editor, The Shillong Times. Views expressed are personal.
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Patricia Mukhim
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