Chennai summit: Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping avoid Kashmir, discuss trade deficit and hit right notes but it's tricky to trust Beijing

-

India-China engagement is always accompanied by lofty rhetoric. Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi's latest schmoozing was described by the Chinese president himself as "in-depth", "heart-to-heart", "candid" where they apparently talked of "pragmatic cooperation" and "consolidating the foundation". Later, in a long statement published by Xinhua — part of China's state-controlled media network — Xi is quoted as saying that "China and India should be good neighbors who live in harmony and work together as good partners", and that "the dragon and the elephant (should) dance together."

For his part, in his opening remarks before the delegation-level talks on Saturday, Modi evoked Wuhan spirit which, according to him, had given a "new momentum and trust to relations" and coined a new catchphrase — Chennai Connect — to mark the "start of a new era of cooperation between the two countries."

As this piece notes, given the huge power imbalance between the two sides it is unrealistic to expect either a true "reset" in ties or deliverables. The second edition of Modi-Xi informal summit was expectedly short on tangibles and long on florid semantics, but it did manage to throw up some promising angles for both nations to explore.

On two issues, Modi should feel satisfied. One, a major part of his nearly six-hour long one-on-one chat with Xi at the seaside town of Mamallapuram focused on trade, and the Chinese president seemed amenable to the notion that the huge imbalance in figures that are heavily skewed against India is unsustainable and must be addressed. According to latest data, annual bilateral trade stands at $95.54 billion in 2018 with India's deficit pegged at $53 billion.

China isn't remotely as interested in cutting a deal with India as it is with the US, but New Delhi would consider it a positive outcome that both leaders have agreed on a "new mechanism" to address the trade imbalance. Twitter/@narendramodi

China isn't remotely as interested in cutting a deal with India as it is with the US, but New Delhi would consider it a positive outcome that both leaders have agreed on a "new mechanism" to address the trade imbalance. Twitter/@narendramodi

China isn't remotely as interested in cutting a deal with India as it is with the US, but New Delhi would consider it a positive outcome that both leaders have agreed on a "new mechanism" to address the trade imbalance. Under this mechanism, Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman and Chinese Vice Premier Hu Chunhua will thrash out the differences for a more equitable trading partnership and discussions will be held on trade, investment and services.

At the media briefing on Saturday after Xi had concluded his India visit and left for Nepal, foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale said: "There was a good conversation on trade as we know that this is an issue which has been a concern here back home and President Xi Jinping after hearing out our Prime Minister on this issue said that China is ready to take sincere action and to discuss in a very concrete way, how to reduce the trade deficit."

It raises the question whether earlier discussions on trade were less than "concrete" and whether the Chinese were insincere in their earlier promises on fixing the imbalance but the moot point is that the gaping deficit has been brought to the front and centre of discussions.

The second point that may give Modi a quiet satisfaction is that the issue of Kashmir wasn't raised. China's ploy of blowing hot and cold on Kashmir just before the summit, and Xi's meeting with the visiting Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan a day before his scheduled arrival in India were diplomatic signaling aimed at setting the bar low during Chennai summit so that expectations remain manageable. Khan would have certainly wanted Xi to pick up the topic of Kashmir during discussions but, as FS Gokhale said, "(Kashmir) issue was not raised and not discussed. Our position is anyway very clear that this is an internal matter of India.."

However, Xi apparently apprised Modi of Khan's visit to Beijing, which raises the question what exactly did Modi and Xi discuss while talking about the Pakistani prime minister if the topic wasn't Kashmir? Be that as it may, India's effort to broad-base the bilateral relationship beyond the China-Pakistan rubric and focus on other key areas - maintaining predictability and tranquility along the Line of Actual Control, huge trade imbalance, or RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) that proposes a free trade agreement between 16 nations including India and China - has been successful.

The summit also threw up the need for greater people to people connect and tourism, all ideas that offer ground for following up - something Indians are not really good at. Twitter/@narendramodi

The summit also threw up the need for greater people to people connect and tourism, all ideas that offer ground for following up - something Indians are not really good at. Twitter/@narendramodi

On RCEP, the common regional trade pact, there is tangible fear in India that it will open Indian market further for Chinese companies to exploit, and therefore Modi during his meeting with Xi stressed that India is ready for RCEP but its concerns on having a FTA that maintains a good balance between trading in goods, services and investment must be taken into account. Xi apparently tried to allay such fears.

The summit also threw up the need for greater people to people connect and tourism, all ideas that offer ground for following up - something Indians are not really good at. The other point worth noting is Gokhale's comment during the media briefing that Xi "raised the issue of engaging more on defence and security side…" to "enhance mutual trust between the two militaries and the security forces." Post Wuhan, there was a visible softening of Chinese military forays into Indian side of the undemarcated LAC. Given the chequered history between the two nations, it is practically impossible for India to trust China on any assurances, even if it comes from the top.

That said, the "informal format" seems to have struck some sort of chemistry between the two leaders. Xi mentioned that it was originally Modi's idea (post Doklam) and he would like this mechanism to continue. He has even invited Modi for the third edition which the prime minister has "gladly" accepted. It is possible that we are slowly moving into an era of personal diplomacy where ties between nations are better managed through relation between top leadership instead of structured systems. The expectations from Chennai summit were low, and by that metric it seems to have met the requirements.



from Firstpost India Latest News https://ift.tt/2M9trik
Sreemoy Talukdar

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Both COVID-19 vaccine doses needed for good protection against B16172 variant

-
It’s been a concerning few weeks in the UK, with the B16172 variant first taking hold and then spreading to become dominant. This more infectious form of the virus, initially identified in India, is what we’re now going to have to live with – unless it is out-competed by another variant in the future. Worryingly, experts had predicted that B16172 might be able to escape some of the effects of vaccines, which if true would threaten to derail the UK’s plans to finish lifting restrictions from the end of June. However, Public Health England (PHE) has looked at the ability of various variants to evade immunity and says that the UK’s vaccines remain effective against the variants circulating, including B16172. On the surface, this looks like good news. But delve a bit deeper, and things get more complicated, says Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia. PHE’s research found a little drop-off in protection against B16172 among people who were fully vaccinated.
Read more

New coronavirus variant emerge in India: How should our COVID response change?

-
Image
After genome sequencing of over 10,000 COVID-19 cases in India, researchers have discovered a new variant with two new mutations which may be better at evading the immune system. In 15-20 percent of samples from the Indian state of Maharashtra (the state accounting for 62 percent of cases in the country) a new, double mutation in key areas of the virus has been detected. These are now known as the E484Q and L452R mutations. What makes the variant different? Both these mutations are concerning because they are located in a key portion of the virus – the spike protein – that it uses to penetrate human cells. Spike proteins attach via a “receptor binding domain”, meaning the virus can attach to receptors in our cells. These new mutations include changes to the spike protein that make it a “better fit” for human cells. This means the virus can gain entry more easily and multiply faster. Given what we have seen with other similar mutations , it might also make it harder for our immu
Read more

Aditya L1 Mission: Spacecraft is nearing its final phase, says ISRO chief

-
Aditya L1 spacecraft is nearing its final phase, and manoeuvres to enter the L1 point are expected to be completed by January 7, 2024, according to ISRO Chairman S Somanath. “Aditya is on the way. I think it has reached almost its final phase,” the ISRO chief told PTI on the sidelines of an event organised at VSSC to commemorate the 60th year of the First Sounding Rocket Launch. Aditya L1, India’s first space-based mission to study the Sun, was successfully launched on September 2 from the Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) in Sriharikota. The spacecraft, after travelling about 1.5 million km from Earth over 125 days, is expected to be placed in a Halo orbit around the Lagrangian point L1, considered closest to the Sun. He said that the last preparations for the spacecraft’s entry into the L1 point are currently underway incrementally.”Possibly by January 7th, the final manoeuvres will be done for entering into the L1 point,” Somanath added. Among other tasks, it will capture and tr
Read more